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In the anticipation of the release of Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour concert film, box office analysts eagerly embraced their inner Swifties, forecasting a record-breaking opening weekend akin to a blockbuster movie. Taylor Swift certainly lived up to those high expectations. While the pop sensation didn’t quite reach the elusive $100 million milestone, the film’s domestic ticket sales surpassed an impressive $95 million, as confirmed by AMC Entertainment, the film’s distributor.
On Sunday, the theater chain offered a projected opening weekend revenue range of $95 million to $97 million for the film, with the official figure anticipated to be disclosed on Monday after all ticket sales have been accounted for. Shawn Robbins, the chief analyst at BoxOffice.com, emphasized that the film’s premiere unquestionably qualifies as a monumental success, even in the face of the complexities associated with predicting its performance. He expressed that Taylor Swift, her devoted fan base, and the theatrical exhibition industry should collectively celebrate these remarkable results.
The film has already made history, breaking records as the top-grossing domestic concert film release. It outperformed Justin Bieber’s “Never Say Never,” which had amassed $73 million throughout its entire theatrical run in 2011, all within a single weekend. Furthermore, it effortlessly surpassed Miley Cyrus’ “Best of Both Worlds,” which held the previous record with an opening of $31.1 million back in 2008. Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour film also achieved another milestone as the most extensively distributed concert film in history, premiering in over 3,850 domestic theaters during its debut.
The official count on Monday will determine if Taylor Swift’s film managed to secure the record for the highest October opening, currently held by 2019’s “The Joker” with $96.2 million. It will also indicate whether the film ranks as the sixth or seventh-highest opening of 2023. For context, Disney’s “The Little Mermaid” had an opening of $95.6 million in May. Additionally, there is a chance that positive word-of-mouth and Swift’s dedicated fan base could draw more moviegoers to theaters on Sunday, potentially edging it closer to that coveted $100 million milestone.
“As we’ve been warning in recent weeks, making predictions for this release has always been a highly unpredictable task due to its exceptional nature,” remarked Robbins. “Several variables, such as the average ticket price, the extent of Swift’s fan base’s enthusiasm in pre-sales, and the impact of traditional marketing efforts on non-Swifties’ turnout, collectively contributed to the wide spectrum of possible outcomes.”
Initially, there were expectations that Swift’s Friday earnings could fall within the range of $40 million to $60 million, potentially leading to an opening weekend performance of up to $150 million. On Friday, the film secured $39 million, slightly below the projected range. This figure included $2.8 million generated from last-minute Thursday night previews, which were announced less than 24 hours before they were available for purchase.
Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore, commented, “Swift’s reputation for generating excitement and the unprecedented nature of this release generated a tremendous wave of interest in the film, contributing to somewhat inflated expectations of a weekend surpassing $100 million. However, this should not diminish the significance of this remarkable box office achievement.”
An impressive 60% of weekend tickets were purchased in advance, as revealed by data from EntTelligence. This figure stands as one of the highest pre-sale rates ever recorded by the movie data firm. Typically, major blockbuster films tend to secure around 40% of their ticket sales ahead of time. According to EntTelligence, approximately 4.8 million individuals were estimated to have attended the film during the weekend, with an average ticket price of $20.75. Remarkably, almost 80% of the audience consisted of female viewers. While international box office figures were not immediately available on Sunday, the film’s strong domestic opening has raised expectations that it may surpass the $262.5 million global earnings achieved by “Michael Jackson’s This Is It” during its limited theatrical run.
Swift’s film is unique in that it has exclusive weekend-only showings in theaters, making it challenging to draw direct comparisons to other releases in the weeks ahead. However, comparing weekend-to-weekend figures will provide a more relevant basis for evaluation. Dergarabedian raised the question of what the Swift film’s subsequent performance will be in the days and weeks to come, noting, “Reports of a remarkable in-theater experience indicate promising prospects for the film’s long-term viability, ensuring that it will comfortably surpass the $100 million milestone in the domestic market.”
